Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)

Search Result : Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators (84120)

Occupational Outlook

STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.

Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.

Broad occupational categories

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations, except management

Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)

TEER 4: Occupations usually require a secondary school diploma; or several weeks of on-the-job training

Employment in 2023

29,100

Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023

26 %

Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023

64 years old

Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)

The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand substantially exceeded labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.

The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Employers encounter difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours. This is why a significant proportion of farm workers are temporary foreign workers, particularly during peak production months. The Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) allows employers to hire temporary foreign workers (TFW) when Canadians and permanent residents are not available for work.

• It should be noted that TFWs in this occupation are difficult to capture in the official statistics based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). If contacted by the LFS, temporary foreign workers would be included only if they identify the selected dwelling as their usual place of residence. In a lot of cases, these workers are not the main respondents to the survey for different reasons, including their lodging conditions and the lack of official language competencies.
• Indeed, according to IRCC and ESDC's administrative data, there were a substantial number of temporary foreign workers in this occupation during peak seasons. To properly analyze this occupation, both sources of information must be considered. Following this assumption and adding these temporary foreign workers to the LFS count, over the period 2019-2023, the total employment in this occupation would have increased.

Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators is expected to total 9,400, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (7,100).

Projected job openings (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 9,400 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 940 per year, representing approximately 3.2% of its 2023 employment level (29,100 workers).

• Job creation is expected to account for approximately 31% of job openings, a proportion comparable to the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
• Annual employment growth (1.0%) is expected to be slightly lower than the national average (1.2%).
• Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators work mainly in Agriculture (99 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of -0.5% over the period.
• Forecasted improvements in weather conditions are expected to boost production for most crops (e.g., grains, oilseeds and pulses). However, climate change has made weather conditions increasingly unpredictable, and more years with severe droughts such as those experienced in 2021 and 2023 could have a significant negative impact on output.
• In addition, if the United States opts to impose large tariffs on imports from Canada, it will likely lead to decreased demand for agriculture products, for which the US is an important export destination.
• Higher international market integration and labour recruitment difficulties will continue to put pressure on Canadian farmers to be cost-effective through innovative technologies such as biometric sensors to examine livestock, self-learning milking machines, and driverless tractors guided by geo-positioning satellite devices.
• Replacement demand is expected to account for about 69% of job openings.
  • Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 73%), a proportion lower than the national average (around 78%).
  • Although workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average, as fewer of them are aged 50 and over, they have a lower retirement rate than the average for all occupations.

Projected job seekers (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 7,100 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 710 job seekers per year. This represents around 2.4% of the 2023 employment level (29,100 workers).

• School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants.
• Finally, mobility is expected to be negative for this occupation as the number of workers departing for other occupations exceeds the number of workers entering in the occupation.

Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)

Difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours have resulted in greater utilization of temporary foreign workers for this occupation during the peak working months. This situation is expected to persist over time.