Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers (94141)
- Occupational Outlook
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STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Occupations in manufacturing and utilities, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 4: Occupations usually require a secondary school diploma; or several weeks of on-the-job training
- Employment in 2023
- 18,600
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 35 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 65 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Between 2019 and 2023, the number of workers fell slightly, accompanied by an increase in its unemployment. However, labour demand rose, as evidenced by the increase in the number of job vacancies and the job vacancy rate, which was significantly higher than the overall average. Moreover, the number of unemployed people available to fill these vacancies was about half lower than the average for all occupations.
Due to the difficult working conditions and the demanding nature of the occupation, employers struggle to attract workers. This explains why in 2023, more than 65% of positions remained vacant for 90 days or more, a rate that was twice as high as the average for all occupations.
This is why employers tend to rely on temporary foreign workers to meet labour demand. Indeed, a sizeable proportion of industrial butchers are temporary foreign workers in 2023. The program allows employers to hire temporary foreign workers (TFWs) when Canadians and permanent residents are not available.
Indeed, the presence of TFWs, and analysis of key labour market indicators such as vacancies, employment growth and unemployment rates, indicates that demand had significantly outstripped labour supply in this occupation over the period 2021 to 2023. The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers is expected to total 5,500, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (5,000).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 7% of job openings, a lower proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (0.2%) is expected to be below the national average (1.2%).
- Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers work exclusively in Food and Beverage Products (100 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8% over the period.
- Faced with a relative solid outlook for output growth, employment is expected to grow at a healthy pace, but job creation should continue to be restrained by additional productivity gains.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 93% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 77%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- New immigrants are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by the school leavers.
- This occupation is expected to rely heavily on immigration to meet labour demand. School leavers should represent a less important source of labour supply, as this occupation is not very popular among young people due to the nature of the work and low wages.
- Given the large supply of workers from the school system and immigration, a significant number of workers are expect to leave this occupation for other professions.
- For similar reasons, strong mobility out of this occupation is expected. Indeed, a significant number of workers are expected to leave this occupation for related professions,such as Butchers - retail and wholesale (NOC 63201), among others. Which will continue to contribute to the labour shortage conditions.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 5,500 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 550 per year, representing approximately 3.0% of its 2023 employment level (18,600 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 5,000 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 500 job seekers per year. This represents around 2.7% of the 2023 employment level (18,600 workers).